Basic concepts of MMA handicapping: understanding the line

Thanks again to Savage Science managing editor Jim Murphy for this writeup. Before he took over the SAVSCI he was on a short list of the best theoretical handicapping minds in the business, so you’re learning from the best. This is a Harvard level education in sports gambling and handicapping theory.

The Savage Science should be your go to site for MMA news, UFC news and much much more:

THE LINE: It’s important to keep in mind how the lines are set and what they mean. A prevalent misconception is that they represent a prediction by bookmakers on who will win and in the case of pointspread bets by how much. There is some of that factored into the number, but more important to the bookmaker is setting a number that will divide the action evenly both ways. In some ways, it’s more accurate to consider the line or pointspread a ‘popularity contest’. Ultimately, the bookmaker is more interested in accurately predicting how the public’s betting opinion on a proposition will break down more than anything else.

So in theory, a bettor can always find value simply by going against public opinion. It’s not quite as simple as this, but there are definitely worse things to be in sports gambling than a contrarian. Some teams even come to be known as ‘public’ teams—you know who they are in team sports: the Yankees, Red Sox, Notre Dame, Duke, North Carolina. Bookmakers will typically ‘shade’ the line in games involving these teams to reflect the mainstream popularity they enjoy. In a hypothetical basketball game between Duke and a low profile program like, for example, Coastal Carolina the data could indicate the line should favor the Tar Heels by 10 points. A bookmaker might then open the Heels as a -14 point favorite based simply on the difference in name recognition alone.

This concept is particularly important in MMA—the reality of the sport is that once you get below the fighters at the very top of the food chain there’s a lot of parity. The nature of a sport full of shameless self promotion also presents opportunities where you’ll frequently find matchups between evenly matched fighters with one guy favored because he’s simply better known.

SPORTS-1 INTERNET SPORTS BOOK MMA LINES