October 23rd, 2009 — UFC
Nice batch of value priced underdogs on the UFC 104 card:
BET: MAURICIO ‘SHOGUN’ RUA +320 OVER LYOTO MACHIDA
BET: BEN ROTHWELL +275 OVER CAIN VELASQUEZ
BET: GLEISON TIBAU -120 OVER JOSH NEER
BET: SPENCER FISHER +205 OVER JOE STEVENSON
BET: YOSHIYUKI YOSHIDA +265 OVER ANTHONY JOHNSON
BET: CHAEL SONNEN +215 OVER YUSHIN OKAMI
October 4th, 2009 — UFC
Here’s the latest UFC 104 betting odds from Sports-1 sportsbook.
UFC 104 ODDS:
Lyoto Machida -400
Shogun Rua +340
Cain Velasquez -285
Ben Rothwell +225
Gleison Tibau no line
Josh Neer no line
No line currently posted due to Josh Neer’s replacement of Sean Sherk
Joe Stevenson -240
Spencer Fisher +190
BET THIS FIGHT AT SPORTS-1
Anthony Johnson -300
Yoshiyuki Yoshida +240
Antoni Hardonk -125
Pat Berry -105
Yushin Okami -225
Chael Sonnen +185
Ryan Bader -410
Eric Schafer +350
And don’t forget that you can get the UFC 104 live play by play coverage and full UFC 104 results at THE SAVAGE SCIENCE
UFC 104 MACHIDA VS. SHOGUN LIVE @ THE SAVAGE SCIENCE
September 16th, 2009 — UFC, meta
UFC 103
We’ll have some official selections on UFC 103 later this week, but for now here are the current UFC 103 odds from our friends at Sports-1 Internet Sportsbook:
Rich Franklin -155
Vitor Belfort +125
Mirko Cro Cop +110
Junior Dos Santos -140
Martin Kampmann No line
Paul Daley No line
Paul ‘Semtex’ Daley is a late replacement for Mike Swick. Fight is currently off the board.
Frank Trigg +290
Josh Koshchek -360
Tyson Griffin -305
Hermes Franca +245
Get up to the minute UFC 103 odds at Sports-1
Don’t forget you can follow all of the UFC 103 action LIVE at THE SAVAGE SCIENCE
August 30th, 2009 — handicapping theory
Thanks again to Savage Science managing editor Jim Murphy for this writeup. Before he took over the SAVSCI he was on a short list of the best theoretical handicapping minds in the business, so you’re learning from the best. This is a Harvard level education in sports gambling and handicapping theory.
The Savage Science should be your go to site for MMA news, UFC news and much much more:
THE LINE: It’s important to keep in mind how the lines are set and what they mean. A prevalent misconception is that they represent a prediction by bookmakers on who will win and in the case of pointspread bets by how much. There is some of that factored into the number, but more important to the bookmaker is setting a number that will divide the action evenly both ways. In some ways, it’s more accurate to consider the line or pointspread a ‘popularity contest’. Ultimately, the bookmaker is more interested in accurately predicting how the public’s betting opinion on a proposition will break down more than anything else.
So in theory, a bettor can always find value simply by going against public opinion. It’s not quite as simple as this, but there are definitely worse things to be in sports gambling than a contrarian. Some teams even come to be known as ‘public’ teams—you know who they are in team sports: the Yankees, Red Sox, Notre Dame, Duke, North Carolina. Bookmakers will typically ‘shade’ the line in games involving these teams to reflect the mainstream popularity they enjoy. In a hypothetical basketball game between Duke and a low profile program like, for example, Coastal Carolina the data could indicate the line should favor the Tar Heels by 10 points. A bookmaker might then open the Heels as a -14 point favorite based simply on the difference in name recognition alone.
This concept is particularly important in MMA—the reality of the sport is that once you get below the fighters at the very top of the food chain there’s a lot of parity. The nature of a sport full of shameless self promotion also presents opportunities where you’ll frequently find matchups between evenly matched fighters with one guy favored because he’s simply better known.
August 30th, 2009 — handicapping theory
Actually, these concepts apply to all forms of sports handicapping but will be particularly helpful to newcomers interested in betting on UFC and MMA events.
Thanks to Savage Science managing editor Jim Murphy for this writeup and the one to follow:
Mixed martial arts is becoming a major betting sport, which is a very tidy convergence of my past and present vocations as a professional sports handicapper and fight sport journalism god. Not to toot my own horn, but I was one of the first handicappers to seriously work on MMA back when most people—bookmakers included—considered it more of a freak show than actual sport. For awhile, betting MMA was like a personal ATM machine—no one could set a sharp line on the sport, and my clients and I took advantage and made a lot of money. The bookmakers are getting sharper, but it’s still possible to bet MMA profitably.
Now, I’m not going to bore you with a sports betting theory lecture. I could prattle on for days talking about ‘true odds’, theoretical breakeven points, and other arcane concepts that have more to do with math than sports. I am going to preface this with a couple of important concepts of serious sports betting theory that you should keep in mind when betting MMA or, for that matter, any sport.
VALUE: To make money betting on sports over the long haul, you need to find positive line value situations or what we sports gambling types call ‘an overlay’. Simply stated, these are situations where the ‘true odds’ of an event occurring make the prices offered by a sportsbook favorable. The easiest way to explain this is to think of a coin flip which over the long term is a 50% proposition. Were a sports book offering +100 on one side of a coin flip, that would accurately reflect the ‘true odds’ of this proposition. Were a book offering ‘heads’ at +150 and ‘tails’ at -175, it would be a situation where ‘heads’ is a good wagering value and ‘tails’ a bad investment.
See what we’re doing here? We’re not so much trying to determine which side the coin lands on, but finding a price that puts the ‘true odds’ of a certain outcome in our favor. At +150, the theoretical breakeven point is 40%. At -175, it’s 63.6%. So keeping in mind that over the long term the coin flip is a 50/50 proposition, simply betting on ‘heads’ will make us money over the long haul. Conversely, laying the favorite price on ‘tails’ is, simply stated, a ‘sucker bet’.
Obviously, in the ‘real world’ there aren’t a lot of cut and dried instances where you know what the true odds of a proposition are like you do with a coin flip. That’s where all of the statistical and matchup analysis comes into play. Still, what we do when we handicapping MMA or any other sport is a more complex version of the ‘coin flip’ example above.
Profitable night of UFC handicapping. Overall we go 5-2 +360 at UFC 102:
UFC 102:
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira +150 over Randy Couture WIN
Thiago Silva +120 over Keith Jardine WIN
Jake Rosholt +120 over Chris Leben WIN
Demian Maia +150 over Nate Marquardt loss
Mike Russo -275 over Justin McCully (half unit) WIN
Evan Dunham +120 over Marcus Arellio WIN
Chris Tuchscherer +305 over Gabriel Gonzaga loss
Read the full UFC 102 recap and get UFC 102 resultsat THE SAVAGE SCIENCE
August 29th, 2009 — UFC
Here’s our selections for UFC 102–we apologize for not providing a thorough analysis but we wanted to get these plays up in time for you to take advantage of them. All UFC 102lines are from the Internet’s best sportsbook for UFC betting, Sports-1:
UFC 102:
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira +150 over Randy Couture
Thiago Silva +120 over Keith Jardine
Jake Rosholt +120 over Chris Leben
Demian Maia +150 over Nate Marquardt
Mike Russo -275 over Justin McCully (half unit)
Evan Dunham +120 over Marcus Arellio
Chris Tuchscherer +305 over Gabriel Gonzaga
For live play by play coverage of UFC 102 visit THE SAVAGE SCIENCE
June 17th, 2009 — meta
We’ll be launching MMA-Handicapping.com soon but in the meantime visit our friends at Anatta Sports. They’re a team of experienced sports gamblers who offer the best in sports handicapping including MMA handicapping with daily free picks!
February 26th, 2009 — meta
MMA and mixed martial arts handicapping selections and theoretical concepts from one of the pioneers of mixed martial arts wagering. This site will be free and remain free thanks to the underwriting of our sponsors. We ask that you show your appreciation by patronizing them.
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